Portfolio Boss

100% Certain Bet

Corona Del Mar, CA


Howdy Friend!


On a fine day in 1995, McArthur Wheeler decided to rob a bank. The weird part was that he wasn't wearing a mask or disguise of any sort. We was shocked when the police came knocking at his door and arrested him. Before robbing the bank, McArthur had smeared lemon juice all over his face.

He thought it would block the security camera from recording his dumb mug (he had tested the idea with a Polaroid camera...I'm guessing the shine from his face reflected the flash).


In other words, he was an idiot who didn't understand he was too stupid to be a successful bank robber.


Dunning and Kruger wrote about him in their 1999 paper -- Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments.


While McArthur was a ding dong, there are a lot of smart people the over-estimate their trading skills and blow up their account (put yours truly on that list...I blew up three in the 90's).

My buddy told me about his cousin who was day trading the S&P 500.


His technique was to trade in the opposite direction of a gap (long gap downs, short gap ups). I told him that I have 100% certainty that he'll lose all his money.


He did.


I told everyone the same thing when the Meme Stock craze hit. I had already gone through the Internet bubble and it was exactly the same thing 20 years later.


Different ticker symbols, same frenzy, same outcome.


I hear all the time about people having low self esteem, and how that's a problem in our culture...when the opposite is true.


The biggest problem I see -- especially in trading -- is being over-optimistic.


You'll see a trader read a book or two on stock trading, then think they're a genius...only to have their ass handed to them by Mr. Market.

Mr. Market doesn't put up with BS, and doesn't care about your feelings.


There's no participation trophy. Trading is the ultimate meritocracy.


Quick aside: If you type "meritocracy" into ChatGPT, it'll bitch at you about diversity. True story. I'm calling it WokeChat from now on. 


Anyhoo...I have a book recommendation for you. It's called The Optimism Bias. It really helped me see through my own BS, and eat a big slice of humble pie.


After 26 years of trading I'm 100% certain of three things:


  • You will eventually blow up if you're dollar cost averaging into stocks
  • Chart reading is a pseudoscience
  • Martini glasses were designed to spill all over yourself


More from me soon...

Trade smart,

Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy


Disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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