What are the Veteran Strategies Signaling?

Corona Del Mar, CA

 

Howdy Friend!

 

I remember when Tesla decided to share its patents with the world in 2014...my initial thought was "why on earth would Elon do that?" Then I realized that everyone would be riding his coattails while Tesla was already onto the next thing.

 

People and companies and governments go down the path of least resistance. So if you blaze a trail to follow, they won't go off and build another trail.

 

It's quite probable that's why plans get "leaked" or "stolen" or "sold on the black market" from the West to China or the former USSR all those decades ago.

 

Then you know their flaws and you can sabotage them if they get uppity.

 

It was brought to my attention that a subscriber not only took a lot of my work and passed it off as his own, but he even stole the name of one of my strategies.

People notice these things.

 

However...it's old work. Things I talked about in 2006.

 

We're knee-deep in machine learning on all kinds of weird data these days. But hey, it's Throwback Thursday so let's look at some strategies that have been proven right over the decades and see what they're signaling.

 

Atlas Order

 

First up we have Atlas Order.

 

It's based on research I did all the way back to 1926 (download the PDF here). It trades a basket of ETFs from all over the world, commodities, indices, and stock sectors (75 in total).

 

It has been sidestepping just about everything since July. 

Smart Money

 

Next up we have the Smart Money indicator.

 

It's on a "sell" signal for the S&P 500 and a "buy" signal for long-term bonds.

 

DB Transactions

 

How about the "DB Transactions" strategy I released in 2014? DB's are cool because it focuses on momentum and anti-momentum.

 

DB actually stands for "double-barrel."

 

As far as I know, I haven't been ripped off on that idea yet. It focuses on tech stocks so you'd think it would be in a terrible drawdown. Not at all. A lot of planning went into that strategy.

 

It started skipping out on stocks way back in January. It's in First Solar and Biogen (+21% & +8%). Nothing else qualifies. 

 

AAII Sentiment and Index Put/call data

 

Just seeing if you're awake...you'll recall that after rigorous testing with machine learning, there's no predictive power in these.

 

How about the New Stuff?

 

The biggest breakthrough in 25 years of designing trading strategies occurred when we started feeding The Boss SuperAi weird non-price data.

 

While I'm getting ripped off on old work, we've pioneered an entirely new way to trade. I know with 100% confidence that next to no one is using this approach because it was the biggest pain in the ass ever.

 

We've gone through four data vendors to get it right. But it was worth it because it's highly predictive. Price and volume based strategies (which is nearly 100% of them) can't hold a candle.

 

Below is a price chart of the inverse S&P 500 (SDS).

By the way, yes, this "Simon" strategy is still in SDS for a 17% gain.

 

You might be wondering why it has a graphic of the classic kids game, Simon, near the buy signals?

 

You're going to have to wait until next week for me to explain what playing Simon has to do with profitable trading in just about ANY market under the sun.

 

Until then...


Trade smart,


Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy

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Disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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