Corona Del Mar, CA
Here's how to beat the board game, Monopoly...
And if I can teach an eight year old how to ace Monopoly in four lessons (which I did), then you can take these lessons and apply it to beating the markets.
OK, let's begin...
If you think the creator of Monopoly didn't completely understand statistics, you would be sadly mistaken.
All you have to do is look at the image above and see that the three chance cards (the question marks) have the worst odds of landing on them.
You'll also see that some properties just aren't worth buying because they aren't landed on much.
At first, little Zane (the 8-year-old) was acting out every time something bad happened...
- He rolled a 9 and ended up in jail...he threw the dice in a tantrum
- He rolled doubles three times in a row...jail again...and hootin' and hollerin' would commence
- He'd land on luxury tax, and complain the game wasn't fair
- Players would land on his property color, but not the one that he owned...he'd blame the dice
- And on and on..."Not fair!"
It wasn't fun playing with him because he was being a poor sport.
Who wants to play with someone acting out?
// By the way...is this sounding similar to trading? Read on, it gets better //
He's only 8...so I took him aside and taught him a reallllllyy simple way to beat Monopoly.
Lesson 1: First I taught him basic probabilities...that the dice are random and can't be controlled.
It's not his fault if he lands somewhere...it's part of the game.
Lesson 2: And also that the two dice most commonly add up to seven.
That means you won't land on certain properties that much.
He nodded eagerly when I showed him all the ways to make a seven.
Lesson 3: Then I showed him how you can't make any money with owning just the property...you don't make money until you put houses on them.
He smiled...it was starting to sink in.
Lesson 4: Then I showed him how half the board had expensive properties...and how he should skip those and focus on sides 1 and 2 (orange, light blue, purple).
I created a monster!
Because right after that lesson, he won his first game!
And then the next.
He went from a moody, complaining little turd to grinning ear to ear like the Cheshire Cat.
Now how can we apply that to your trading my friend?
Well, let's look at Lesson 1.
Rolling the dice is random. And as I said in lesson 2, it's a game of probability.
With two dice, you're probably going to get a seven. As the numbers get bigger or smaller, the odds go down.
Little Zane learned to expect something near a seven when the dice get rolled.
And whatever he lands on is just part of the game -- good or bad.
In trading, we use computers to know approximately what our odds will be for a winning trade (you are using a computer to test right?)
A 66% win rate is common in computerized stock trading.
That means one outta every three trades will be a loser.
It's part of playing the game.
But if you don't look at it that way, and you let your ego take over, you can start throwing things around in a rage...or kick the dog, or yell at the wife...
And now you're sleeping in the dog house while your wife cuddles with poor bruised Sparky.
In Lesson 3, little Zaney learned that in order to make $$$$ you have to own all properties of the same color. That way you can build houses on them.
That's why it's so important to trade a basket of stocks.
Spread your money between several trades.
A more advanced technique is to spread your money between several trading strategies, which is why Jim Simons, Paul Tudor Jones, and yours truly have added Bit-coin strategies to the mix.
Speaking of Bit-coin, we come back to Lesson 4: Focus on sides 1 and 2 of the board because the odds are better for getting properties with high returns.
I recently used our A.I strategy builder to come up with a Bit-coin strategy that trades much more often than previous ones.
My buddy is trading it, and he was complaining that it hadn't made a trade in over a month.
Naturally, Bit-coin suddenly dropped 50%, and he and I avoided the decline.
The lesson learned is to trade when the odds favor you. Don't buy just to buy.
If you want some action, go to Vegas. The billionaire casino owners are nice enough to get you drunk for "free" as you lose your shirt and help pay for their shiny new yacht.
At the end of the day, if you follow these simple lessons, you are well on your way to crushing it in the markets.
I hope this helps!
P.S. My book is back in stock and you can grab it for $0...
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Step 5: Additional Resources
The Relaxed Investor (The simple strategy proven to work since 1926. Downloaded by over 200,000 readers)
The Ghost of Bernie Madoff is Not Yet Dead (Is your broker on the naughty list? Many traders have no idea they're being sold out)
The Ultimate Crash Detector (The strange weekly report that helps predict crashes. LIVE trading signals since 2006)
Portfolio Boss User Guide (Our flagship strategy building platform User Guide. See what it can do to help you on you quest for F U money)
Trading With Other People's Money - Coming Soon!
Bit-coin for Busy People (How to get started with Bit-coin in under an hour without the complicated new exchanges, high fees, and complicated wallets)
Disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.