Portfolio Boss

Bull or Bear?

Dan November 7, 2023
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Corona Del Mar, CA

 

Howdy Friend!

I was told once that because "everyone" uses subjective TA (like trend lines, patterns, Gann angles, Elliott Wave), it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. That's ironic, because by it's subjective nature, traders who use that sort of technical analysis rarely see eye to eye. Lock 100 E-wavers in a room for 4 hours, and they'll come out with 100 different wave counts.

 

I see no difference between those individuals and the so-called "fundamental" forecasters who decide on a market trend—be it a bull or bear market—first, and then scrounge up 500 pieces of evidence to support their predetermined conclusion. It's like declaring you've found Waldo before opening the book, and then pointing out every red-striped object as definitive proof of his whereabouts.

 

I became so annoyed with these types of traders that I wagered a straightforward strategy, encapsulated in just seven lines of code, would outperform them significantly—and it would do so effortlessly.

 

Check it out:


You might remember this strategy from my book Outfoxing Wall Street. It sold out of SPY recently, and got into bonds. Amusingly, bonds then started to outperform right on cue.

Even though the strategy is simple, it manages to combine trend following with mean reversion.

 

When the S&P 500 does end up falling, it'll trigger a sell on bonds, and a buy on S&P 500. We'll have to rise a few more percent for the trend following element to kick in. For now, it's going to ping pong back and forth between stocks and bonds.

 

What about our other strategies?

 

At this point, I'm looking at hundreds of strategies. Dozens of those trade stock indices. That's why I invented a new form of machine learning that predicts which strategies will perform best over the next month.

 

Let the tools do the work.

Trade smart,

Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy

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EARNINGS DISCLAIMER: I like to provide full transparency and not blow smoke up your behind, so listen up.100% Club members in general are seeing between 91%-100% winning months in back tests just using the Instant Start templates I created for them. These results are out-of-sample (unseen in the optimization phase), so I put a lot of weight into that fact.

I don’t yet have a statistic for the average member as far as gains are concerned. There are a lot of variables because this is not a cookie-cutter program. I do have dozens of brokerage statements on file, and the majority are looking positive.

There were a couple outliers that weren’t good because they went off track. I believe I convinced them of where they went wrong and they are back on track (too much leverage, and some over-fitting to the past). That’s my job :)

There are other factors in play as well such as: Are you actually making the trades? Account size. Is your broker any good or are they fleecing you? Are you using all the leverage available to you, or are you dialing it back like I recommend?

Simply put, I believe the reason we’re seeing the highest preliminary success rate of any program EVER is because:

a) you’re selecting from 100+ supercomputer-built strategies, and the odds of them all failing at once are extremely low.

b) the strategies take advantage of highly unusual edges that very few if any know about.

c) Our Meta ML technology is completely unique in the trading world. Very few understand that all strategies have cycles, and that there are opportune times to trade them. This allows you to treat trading more like a business rather than a hobby.

d) The daily instructions are brain-dead simple to follow, and can be accomplished in just a few minutes.

Government required disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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