Sherlock Ai
Corona Del Mar, CA
Howdy Friend!
I'm going to start with a story…make sure to read to the end where I tie this to trading with a big red bow…
The Dog That Didn't Bark is a famous metaphor from Sherlock Holmes stories, specifically in the short story “Silver Blaze” by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.
In this story, Sherlock Holmes solves a mystery by focusing on something that didn't happen, rather than what did.
In the case of “Silver Blaze,” a racehorse disappears, and a stable guard dog that should have barked at an intruder remained silent.
Holmes “deduces” that the dog didn’t bark because it knew the intruder, which leads him to uncover the true identity of the person responsible.
What few understand is that Holmes is using abductive reasoning…or best guess.
You see, a host of things could have happened — perhaps the dog was tranquilized. The most plausible explanation was that the dog knew the intruder (and it makes for a great story).
Deductive reasoning typically has one answer, such as a math problem.
It's an important distinction because Ai is now being trained to think like Sherlock Holmes.
Researchers fed over 103,000 images annotated with clues like this:
This is important to the development of Ai and robotics because it gives the machine context to the world around them — it's how we humans evaluate the world around us…
…it's why the hair on the back of your neck stands up if you see movement in a dark alley.
Without context of what's going on around the robot or driverless car, it's simply a pattern recognition box.
Real world example: a cop had to ram a driverless car because it didn't understand there was road construction, and was driving on the wrong side of the road.
Now don't get your hopes up for this tech being used for trading.
Whether they know it or not, the VAST majority of traders and investors use abductive reasoning for their decisions.
They believe they can gather all sorts of clues, mix them together, and then come up with ONE logical conclusion. There's the flaw. They believe they're using deductive reasoning when in fact they are most certainly using abductive.
In other words, there isn't one logical conclusion going forward. There are in fact many possibilities.
It's like all these guys saying the US has to collapse because of all the debt. Yet they don't figure in AGI and ASI into their calculus.
Remember Yogi Berra's wise words? It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. No wonder why 95% of traders lose money.
The trading models we build use inductive reasoning because they look at hundreds of samples to figure out what happens on average. That means they take into account more than one outcome by design.
I know of no other way to consistently pull money outta the markets and into your greedy little hands.
By the way, I've been listening, and a bunch of your fellow Boss's having been asking about an easier way to take advantage of all the techniques I've developed after spending $6.2 million on 'em.
If you have a 5-figure account, I may have the perfect package for you.
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If that sounds like something you'd love to get your hands on, just reply to this email. I'll send you more info.
Trade smart,
Dan “Prince of Proof” Murphy
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