Forecast Friday: Dell just lit the fuse

Corona Del Mar, CA

Howdy Friend!

Forecast Friday is going to be a new weekly thing where I look at the market through the lens of the Anti-Fibonacci Method.

Not because Fibonacci levels are magic.

Actually, it’s pretty much the opposite.

The whole point of the Anti-Fibonacci Method is that most traders are trained to do everything backwards. They wait for the pullback. They wait for the stock to drift back into the “comfortable” zone. They want the chart to make them feel safe before they buy.

And many times, by the time a monster stock gets all the way back down to that cozy little 38.2% retracement area everyone is watching, the move is already dead.

The trend is over.

The crowd waited for comfort… and comfort showed up wearing a toe tag.

This week’s perfect example is Dell.

Dell just exploded higher after earnings, but this move didn’t come out of nowhere. In our Mega Cap Anti-Fibonacci strategy, Dell has already been on a buy signal.

The setup began back on February 27th, which just happened to be a Friday.

That was the “oh my God, surprise” day.

That’s what I call a trigger day. It’s an explosive up day that tells us something unusual may be happening under the surface. And for this strategy, there needs to be a trigger day in the past year before we even care about the stock.

That trigger day is what sets the table.

Then, if the stock keeps acting right, we ride the trend until the end because no one is smart enough to know where the top is.

Not me.

Not some guy drawing lines on a chart.

Not the people on CNBC who sound very confident right before they’re very wrong.

And definitely not the average trader who keeps saying, “I’ll buy it when it pulls back.”

That sounds smart.

It feels safe.

But in a runaway trend, that “safe” pullback can be the sound of the party ending.

And right now, Dell is a great example of why this method exists. The stock had the surprise day.

It kept acting strong. There was no sell signal. Then earnings hit, and boom — the market launched it higher like somebody strapped a rocket engine to a filing cabinet.

Now, here’s where things get even more interesting.

President Trump is suddenly being treated like a stock picker because he was talking about Dell, and now Palantir is next on the list of names everyone is watching.

He talked about Palantir a while back too, and today Palantir looks like it may be putting in a trigger day of its own.

We’ll have to see how it closes, but as I’m recording this, I’d say I’m about 90% confident Palantir will end up on a buy signal.

And honestly, that wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Palantir is one of the big AI names. It’s controversial. Depending on how you look at it, it may also be one of the creepiest companies in America.

But for this kind of trading, I’m not marrying the company. I’m not putting a framed picture of the CEO over the fireplace (who may be a lunatic BTW…just listen to him speak).

It’s a ticker.

That’s it.

Back in the day, I would trade Philip Morris too. That doesn’t mean I wanted to move into Marlboro Country and start coughing patriotically.

There’s a big difference between investing in a company because you believe in the mission and trading a ticker because the rules say there may be an edge.

That’s what Portfolio Boss is built around.

Rules.

Evidence.

Signals.

Not opinions.

And right now, a lot of chip and AI-related stocks are still on buy signals. We’ve seen triple-digit gains in names like Intel, Micron, and AMD from the Anti-Fibonacci approach, and the moves have been absolutely ballistic.

The big edge in 2026 has clearly been trend following.

You either follow the trend when the stock is breaking out…

Or you buy new lows for a quick mean-reversion trade, usually around a week.

Those are the two main ideas.

What you generally do not want is to get trapped in the middle.

That middle zone is where traders go to feel safe, but it’s often where portfolios go to get stuck.

It’s neither a true breakout nor a true washout. It’s just mush. And mush is bad for your account, unless your trading plan is sponsored by instant oatmeal.

Now, I’ll be the first to admit that some of what we do at Portfolio Boss can be a bridge too far for normal traders.

We use weird data. Really weird data.

People say big data is the new oil, and I agree with that. But the best oil is not always sitting in the obvious places. Sometimes the best edges come from strange market data most people never even think to test.

For example, one of my Dell strategies that uses ETF mispricing data actually bought Dell yesterday.

Thursday.

Right before Dell’s giant move after earnings.

That is insane timing.

But I’m not going to turn Forecast Friday into a lecture about ETF mispricing, dark pool signals, or all the other strange data we use, because the goal here is to keep this simple.

Forecast Friday is about the bridge.

It’s about looking at stocks people already know, charts people already understand, and then showing you what the Anti-Fibonacci Method sees that ordinary chart traders usually miss.

And this week, the message is pretty simple:

Dell had the trigger day.

Dell stayed on the buy signal.

Dell never gave a sell signal.

And Dell just reminded everyone why trying to call the top is usually a sucker’s game.

Meanwhile, Palantir may be setting up next, and the broader AI/chip trend still looks very much alive.

That doesn’t mean every stock goes straight up.

That doesn’t mean there won’t be pullbacks.

And it definitely doesn’t mean we suddenly become fortune tellers wearing wizard hats in front of a Bloomberg terminal.

It means we follow the rules.

When the signal is on, we respect it.

When the sell signal comes, we respect that too.

Until then, we ride the trend until the end.

Do me a favor and hit reply to this email.

Would you rather get Forecast Friday as a written email like this…?

Or would you rather watch me record the screen and walk through the charts on video?

Just reply and tell me:

“Email” or “Video”