CBOE Put/call data: Final Verdict

Dan September 15, 2022

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Corona Del Mar, CA

Hey Friend,

In the last update, I loaded up AAII sentiment data into The Boss...and it was a complete dud.

Not predictive.

I'm not surprised because someone's opinion is worth way less than how much money they have on the line.

So I figured put/call ratios and such would have some predictive power since it's based on actual trading.

The fellas loaded up the data, and I got to "work"

I use the term "work" loosely because it only took me 5 minutes of editing a TAP Template to get started.

2022-09-08_08-02-02

I ended up running 10 tests where The Boss programmed itself in C code.

If The Boss isn't finding something in 10 tests, there isn't an edge. Once again, price data (open, high, low, close, volume, time) easily beat put/call data.

It wasn't even close.

Just to be sure I even combined sentiment with the put/call data. Nada.

Couldn't beat price.

By comparison, 100% of the time, the new TAP data beats price/volume data.

Man...I can't tell you how many times I've heard some "guru" use put/call data as part of their evidence as to why the market should move up or down.

Now that I think about it, these are the same folks that draw lines on charts and try to get into the minds of Fed board members. I stopped doing that 20+ years ago because I went broke.

So there you have it...another Wall Street sacred cow has been slaughtered.

Trade smart,

Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy

Disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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*Earnings Disclaimer - Click to read*

EARNINGS DISCLAIMER: I like to provide full transparency and not blow smoke up your behind, so listen up.100% Club members in general are seeing between 91%-100% winning months in back tests just using the Instant Start templates I created for them. These results are out-of-sample (unseen in the optimization phase), so I put a lot of weight into that fact.

I don’t yet have a statistic for the average member as far as gains are concerned. There are a lot of variables because this is not a cookie-cutter program. I do have dozens of brokerage statements on file, and the majority are looking positive.

There were a couple outliers that weren’t good because they went off track. I believe I convinced them of where they went wrong and they are back on track (too much leverage, and some over-fitting to the past). That’s my job :)

There are other factors in play as well such as: Are you actually making the trades? Account size. Is your broker any good or are they fleecing you? Are you using all the leverage available to you, or are you dialing it back like I recommend?

Simply put, I believe the reason we’re seeing the highest preliminary success rate of any program EVER is because:

a) you’re selecting from 100+ supercomputer-built strategies, and the odds of them all failing at once are extremely low.

b) the strategies take advantage of highly unusual edges that very few if any know about.

c) Our Meta ML technology is completely unique in the trading world. Very few understand that all strategies have cycles, and that there are opportune times to trade them. This allows you to treat trading more like a business rather than a hobby.

d) The daily instructions are brain-dead simple to follow, and can be accomplished in just a few minutes.

Government required disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.