Sentiment: Final Verdict

Dan September 15, 2022

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Corona Del Mar, CA

Hey Friend,

Let's answer this freakin' question once and for all...is sentiment data predictive of future prices?

If it's not, then it's just noise and of no use to our goal of making F U money.

I've said for years that sentiment is just someone's opinion...and you know what they say about opinions -- everyone's got one.

I want to know what they're doing with their actual money.

But hey, I spent all this money on a supercomputer and machine learning, so let's put this question to bed once and for all.

My team loaded AAII sentiment data into The Boss.

I set up several tests to trade 1) the S&P 500 long/short. 2) S&P 500 long and switch into bonds when not in the S&P 3) Long/cash the S&P 500

2022-09-07_19-50-58

The Boss whirled to life, firing up thousands and computer cores to slave away and build me trading strategies from scratch.

Long story short, the sentiment data barely ever got picked for use in a strategy. Price-based strategies easily beat it.

It was like witnessing kids pick players for a dodge ball game, where the weakest kid gets picked last.

For comparison, whenever I add TAP data to a Boss session, it ALWAYS gets picked because it's highly predictive (and you'll never hear a peep about it on CNBC).

So there you have it...another Wall Street sacred cow has been slaughtered.

In the next update, I'll show you what I discovered with index put/call data.

Trade smart,

Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy

Disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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*Earnings Disclaimer - Click to read*

EARNINGS DISCLAIMER: I like to provide full transparency and not blow smoke up your behind, so listen up.100% Club members in general are seeing between 91%-100% winning months in back tests just using the Instant Start templates I created for them. These results are out-of-sample (unseen in the optimization phase), so I put a lot of weight into that fact.

I don’t yet have a statistic for the average member as far as gains are concerned. There are a lot of variables because this is not a cookie-cutter program. I do have dozens of brokerage statements on file, and the majority are looking positive.

There were a couple outliers that weren’t good because they went off track. I believe I convinced them of where they went wrong and they are back on track (too much leverage, and some over-fitting to the past). That’s my job :)

There are other factors in play as well such as: Are you actually making the trades? Account size. Is your broker any good or are they fleecing you? Are you using all the leverage available to you, or are you dialing it back like I recommend?

Simply put, I believe the reason we’re seeing the highest preliminary success rate of any program EVER is because:

a) you’re selecting from 100+ supercomputer-built strategies, and the odds of them all failing at once are extremely low.

b) the strategies take advantage of highly unusual edges that very few if any know about.

c) Our Meta ML technology is completely unique in the trading world. Very few understand that all strategies have cycles, and that there are opportune times to trade them. This allows you to treat trading more like a business rather than a hobby.

d) The daily instructions are brain-dead simple to follow, and can be accomplished in just a few minutes.

Government required disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.