Portfolio Boss

Judgement Day: What are these four strategies saying right now?

Corona Del Mar, CA


Hey Friend,


While most "funnymental" traders are calling for Armageddon in the markets, banks to domino into failure, and the dollar to implode...let's find our happy place and simply look at what our strategies are saying.


After all, when you have hundreds of trading strategies, it's ridiculous to be painted into a corner as either "bullish" or "bearish." In that spirit, let's check out four trading strategies tailor-made for major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

  • 1. The Smart Money strategy remains on a "buy" signal. The average hold is about three months, which is one of the longest holding periods for any strategy I've ever made. Its only input is COT futures data.

  • 2. Country Boy NASDAQ 100 strategy (which shows a CAGR of 80.7%) is also on a "buy" for QLD

  • 3. "2-weeks" S&P 500 strategy. As the name implies, the average hold for this strategy is about 2-weeks. You ever notice contractors will give you a two week estimate to get a job done? We all know that's baloney. This 63% CAGR is the exception. It's on a "buy" signal.

  • 4. 7-Lines of Code strategy from my book, Outfoxing Wall Street. I have no idea why anyone would try to time the stock market by drawing silly lines on charts when this strategy will likely crush their performance over time. It's also on a "buy" signal.
  • Allow me to share a little insight, and I'm curious whether you'll be nodding along in agreement or shaking your head in dissent.


    You see, the very bedrock of the United States was laid upon the principles espoused by Adam Smith. In essence, he believed that economies should be forged from the ground up rather than dictated from the top down. The idea is that if each individual has the opportunity to reap rewards for their efforts, the economy will naturally blossom from the grassroots level, with only a smidgen of oversight from the powers that be.


    Truth be told, an economy is an intricate beast – far too complex for any single person or group to tame. And that's precisely the reason why, whenever legislators meddle with the natural flow of the markets, they end up throwing a wrench in the works and botching the entire system.


    Take Leonard E. Read's insightful essay "I, Pencil" for example.


    This unassuming piece brings to light the staggering fact that not even one individual has the full gamut of knowledge and skills necessary to craft something as simple as a pencil. Now, if even a pencil's creation eludes the grasp of a single individual, how could anyone possibly fathom the unfathomable depths of predicting the market's future?


    You see, that's the crux of the issue with fundamental analysis: It hinges on the wildly improbable assumption that one can truly grasp the intricacies of the entire economic system.

    It's just too darn complex.


    No wonder economists keep getting it wrong time and time again. One moment they're extolling the virtues of the free market, urging us to trust in its wisdom. The next, they're puffing out their chests, proclaiming they've got it all figured out, and boldly predicting what's coming down the pike.


    Oh, the irony!


    Here's the real secret sauce to trading success, my friend: Allow the markets to be your guide – they'll whisper their secrets if you know how to listen. Focus on the cold, hard facts – like price data – that's where the magic happens. Bring out the big guns: employ a trusty computer to crunch the numbers.


    Always remember, it's a game of probabilities, not certainties. Stay vigilant and follow the signals – they'll light the path to success. And voilà! Profit ensues.


    Now, doesn't that sound like a recipe for success you can sink your teeth into?

    Trade smart,

    Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy


    Disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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