With war in the air…
…and uncertainty spreading fast…
Most traders do the predictable thing: They run toward defense stocks.
It feels obvious. Missiles flying…
Global tension rising…
Fear everywhere…
So of course defense stocks should be a buy, right?
That’s the story everybody tells.
And as usual, our model told a very different story.
On March 3, it flashed a SELL on ITA, the defense sector ETF.
Why?
Because when ITA’s correlation with banks drops below -0.1, our model says get out.
On March 3, that correlation had broken hard, and that matters.
Because when defense stocks start moving sharply out of sync with banks, the market may be signaling something deeper than the headline story.
Here’s my speculation…
Banks often act like a lie detector for the financial system.
– They sniff out stress.
– Credit concerns.
– Liquidity problems.
– Economic strain.
So when defense stocks decouple from banks this aggressively, it may mean the “obvious” war trade is already crowded…
Or that the market is starting to price in a more unstable environment than most people realize.
In other words…
…the headlines may sound bullish for defense, while the underlying market behavior says caution.
That’s why I trust data over drama.
And it’s one more example of how our strategies often go directly against conventional wisdom.
This one certainly has.
In fact, this strategy is now up 82% since I released it in 2023.
Not by chasing headlines.
Not by reacting emotionally to war, fear, or TV narratives.
But by measuring what money is actually doing beneath the surface.
The crowd sees war…
The crowd expects defense stocks to surge…
Our model saw a broken relationship…
And on March 3rd, it said SELL.
That’s the kind of edge that can keep you out of trouble…
And sometimes put you on the right side of a market that looks obvious to everyone else.
And that’s exactly why I built Portfolio Boss.
Because the only real way to separate yourself from the crowd is to stop thinking like the crowd.
You build your own strategies. Test your own ideas. Measure what actually works. And let the data tell you the truth.
That won’t make the world certain.
But it can give you something far better than opinions, propaganda, and recycled talking points pretending to be insight.
It can give you a rational framework. A repeatable process. And a real shot at making decisions with confidence in an uncertain world.
So don’t be discouraged by the chaos.
Use it.
Let the crowd react to headlines.
You build evidence. You build strategies. You build an edge.
That’s how you give yourself a fighting chance to think clearly, and profit while others are still trapped in the fog.
If for some reason you don't have the free version of Portfolio Boss Evo ($1999 value) then download it here and follow the 5-minute quick-start:
https://portfolioboss.com/op/dl-pb/
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