Portfolio Boss

Presidential Years: 1928-2020

Dan June 6, 2024
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Corona Del Mar, CA

 

Howdy Friend!

 

I don't know if you've heard, but a presidential election is coming up in a few months.  😉 It's about this time where really poor research comes out to describe what happens during a presidential year.

 

So what I've done is take the average daily gain of every election year from 1928-2020 and put it on a chart for you:

It's showing a penchant for summer rallies.

 

Interestingly, the temporary top is around my mom's birthday: August 25th. Keep in mind there are only 24 samples. As you know, I'd rather see hundreds of samples for statistical significance -- like when we build kick-ass trading strategies.

 

I'm showing you this chart in order to counteract old adages like "sell in May and go away" as well as "summer doldrums." Conventional wisdom on Wall Street is border-line retarded.

 

P.S. We're currently testing a new PB update that squashes a conflict between opening a new position when it also has a sell limit order. The "Open Positions" tab was also confusing, so I had the team simplify it.

 

We also added a range to Fitness Functions so you can tell The Boss that you want trades to be between "5 and 10 days" for example.

Trade smart,

Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy


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EARNINGS DISCLAIMER: I like to provide full transparency and not blow smoke up your behind, so listen up.100% Club members in general are seeing between 91%-100% winning months in back tests just using the Instant Start templates I created for them. These results are out-of-sample (unseen in the optimization phase), so I put a lot of weight into that fact.

I don’t yet have a statistic for the average member as far as gains are concerned. There are a lot of variables because this is not a cookie-cutter program. I do have dozens of brokerage statements on file, and the majority are looking positive.

There were a couple outliers that weren’t good because they went off track. I believe I convinced them of where they went wrong and they are back on track (too much leverage, and some over-fitting to the past). That’s my job :)

There are other factors in play as well such as: Are you actually making the trades? Account size. Is your broker any good or are they fleecing you? Are you using all the leverage available to you, or are you dialing it back like I recommend?

Simply put, I believe the reason we’re seeing the highest preliminary success rate of any program EVER is because:

a) you’re selecting from 100+ supercomputer-built strategies, and the odds of them all failing at once are extremely low.

b) the strategies take advantage of highly unusual edges that very few if any know about.

c) Our Meta ML technology is completely unique in the trading world. Very few understand that all strategies have cycles, and that there are opportune times to trade them. This allows you to treat trading more like a business rather than a hobby.

d) The daily instructions are brain-dead simple to follow, and can be accomplished in just a few minutes.

Government required disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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