Portfolio Boss

Egg prices: What does the data say?

Corona Del Mar, CA


Howdy Friend!


I didn't want to write this, but I was asked to...and I promise this will help with your trading...and possibly give you peace of mind...


Yup, eggs sure are expensive!


What ticks me off is that my trust of the government is at about zero, and I have to analyze whether or not something nefarious is going on. So let's push aside anecdotal evidence and jump into the numbers.


First of all, we see the price of eggs now collapsing...down about $2 per dozen (-40%) since December:

That's great news right? It won't take long for those prices to reflect when you go shopping.


For added confirmation, here's the spot price for large white eggs:

There are a bunch of TikTok videos floating around with people complaining about their chicken feed and hens not laying eggs.

That's anecdotal evidence and will get you in trouble. It needs to be aggregated or it's worthless.


What I can show you is that millions of hens were slaughtered in early 2022:

I confirmed this data with states like Wisconsin because I've discovered a lot of fake data at the federal level (regarding temperature, not chickens).


The number of hens dropped 6.7% by June 2022 (avian flu).


How bad did egg production get?


Down about 6.2% in December 2022 (not shown on this chart, but it gives you an idea of what the drop looked like).

December was a high-demand month because of Christmas, so prices spiked.


Can you guess the next high demand month? That's right, April, because of Easter.


The good news is that hens start laying eggs by around five months of age. So is there a way to make some trades on eggs? Unfortunately there aren't any egg ETFs or futures.




Now is a great reminder to talk about the last time the public started getting interested in food commodities.


Last March, the wheat ETF (WEAT) became over-priced by 8%. In other words, it's True Asset Price (TAP) was 8% lower, and everyone buying was very foolish. They could go into the futures market for 8% cheaper prices, so "foolish" isn't too far off.

Wheat is down 37% from that peak.

So the lesson is to check the dang TAP before making an ETF trade so you aren't left holding the bag.


You could even short the over-priced ETFs, and go long the underpriced ones. Just make sure you're INFORMED and not trading by the seat of your pants. And for the love of all that is holy, stay away from anecdotal evidence.

Trade smart,

Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy


Disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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