What this ONE rule says about the stock market

Corona Del Mar, CA

Howdy Friend!

There are certain truths about the markets that once you see…you can't unsee.

For example, when I first used a random number generator to create charts — and I saw common patterns like head and shoulders, double-tops, and triangles…

…it suddenly dawned on me that subjective TA was all BS without any science to back it up (several papers written on the subject agree).

But hidden in that noise is SOME signal. It's not all random.

What you may find shocking is that there's just ONE trading rule that you can use across the largest of large cap stocks — mega caps — that has easily outperformed buy and hold.

 

What I did is take the 20 largest stocks by market cap and used Portfolio Boss to reverse-engineer the same set of rules to trade all of them. Part of that rationale is that A.I will likely make these mega caps even larger.

The test was from 1993 and included two out of sample periods to verify we're not over-fitting to the past.

There were no losing years, and the big bear markets like 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 did just fine.

I know when I teach traders what works in the markets, they are utterly surprised.

Trading isn't rocket science. Less complicated nearly always wins. Occam's Razor reigns supreme when it comes to delivering real results in steady fashion over the years.

You may be surprised to know that the strategy is currently 60% in cash.

Most mega cap stocks are simply not in the proper setup right now. Are your favorite stocks like NVDA still on a buy signal?

Judging by the performance of this ONE indicator, I'd say that it holds a lot more weight than any talking head on the news, or the gurus that “know” what's going to happen next with Iran.

There IS signal in the charts, but based on the one rule that works across all these stocks — the chartist haven't figured out the markets and are largely backwards to the brutally honest truth.

Machine learning discovers the truth…and the truth is what makes money.

P.S. I'm currently judging whether or not to release this strategy to the public. Let me know if you're interested in this quick 30-second survey >>

Trade smart,

Dan “Prince of Proof” Murphy




Government required disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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