Portfolio Boss

Implosion!

dan-murphy
Dan June 8, 2023
0 Comments

Corona Del Mar, CA

 

Howdy Friend,

 

I don't comment very often on individual stocks (maybe I should...hmmm)...but the craziness going on with Carl Icahn is right in my wheelhouse. Specifically, Icahn Enterprises (IEP) premium to NAV (which is HIGHLY PREDICTIVE, so read to the end).

 

Take a look at the chart:

You may be wondering what happened without spending much time...

 

Here's the quick n dirty from Hindenburg Research:

  • Icahn Enterprises (IEP) is accused of inflating unit prices, trading at a 218% premium to its net asset value (NAV)

  • Despite negative performance, IEP maintains a high ~15.8% dividend yield, seen as unsustainable by Hindenburg Research

  • IEP allegedly supports its dividend through unit sales, with Jefferies consistently endorsing IEP units while also running all of IEP's offerings since 2019

  • Hindenburg Research claims IEP inflates its NAV through aggressive marks on less liquid/private investments

  • Due to high debt, poor performance, and Carl Icahn's limited financial flexibility, Hindenburg Research predicts IEP may have to cut or eliminate its dividend

I think he's screwed because they were clearly fiddling with the numbers.

 

Check this out:

 

  • IEP significantly overvalued a meat packaging company it owns 90% of, marking it up by 204% compared to market value

  • IEP's "Automotive Parts" division was valued at $381 million, despite a key subsidiary declaring bankruptcy shortly thereafter

  • IEP reported $455 million in "real estate holdings", despite including properties like the demolished Trump Plaza and a near-insolvent country club, highlighting transparency issues

 

Hindenburg noted that they believed IEP was trading at a 310% premium to NAV which is just crazy and is why the stock plunged when investors woke up from their slumber.

 

NAV = Net asset value of a stocks or ETF holdings

 

Remember last year when I called out the ding dongs buying the WEAT ETF when it was trading for an 8% premium over NAV?

Here's what happened ever since:

Mr. GotsToGetMineFirst was proven correct with his astute observation

While I don't have a strategy that predicts Icahn Enterprises (IEP), I DO have access to several that predict individual stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA).

 

As others were poo pooing the "overvaluation" of NVDA, this strategy was buying ahead of the huge gap up:

The strategy is up 160% for the year.

 

Its secret? Patterns in NAV premium (which I call T.A.P -- True Asset Pricing). Assets around the globe can trade for premiums and discounts. There's actually a unique TAP pattern that can predict most large cap stocks -- like a finger print.

 

Unfortunately, it doesn't work on IEP. I can, however, recommend some Amish popcorn and enjoy the show! 

Since you made it down here, here's a free gift for you (different from yesterday's gift). It has to do with rare data that powers a long-term strategy (long-term for me is 3 months).

 

Click here for your free gift >>

More from me soon!

 

P.S. Yes, your eyes did see that correctly...that NVDA strategy is still on a buy despite being in nosebleed territory.

Trade smart,


Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy

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Disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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EARNINGS DISCLAIMER: I like to provide full transparency and not blow smoke up your behind, so listen up.100% Club members in general are seeing between 91%-100% winning months in back tests just using the Instant Start templates I created for them. These results are out-of-sample (unseen in the optimization phase), so I put a lot of weight into that fact.

I don’t yet have a statistic for the average member as far as gains are concerned. There are a lot of variables because this is not a cookie-cutter program. I do have dozens of brokerage statements on file, and the majority are looking positive.

There were a couple outliers that weren’t good because they went off track. I believe I convinced them of where they went wrong and they are back on track (too much leverage, and some over-fitting to the past). That’s my job :)

There are other factors in play as well such as: Are you actually making the trades? Account size. Is your broker any good or are they fleecing you? Are you using all the leverage available to you, or are you dialing it back like I recommend?

Simply put, I believe the reason we’re seeing the highest preliminary success rate of any program EVER is because:

a) you’re selecting from 100+ supercomputer-built strategies, and the odds of them all failing at once are extremely low.

b) the strategies take advantage of highly unusual edges that very few if any know about.

c) Our Meta ML technology is completely unique in the trading world. Very few understand that all strategies have cycles, and that there are opportune times to trade them. This allows you to treat trading more like a business rather than a hobby.

d) The daily instructions are brain-dead simple to follow, and can be accomplished in just a few minutes.

Government required disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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